Aiming at a moving target: economic evaluation of adaptation strategies under the uncertainty of climate change and CO2 fertilization of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.)

Key message

Drought severely worsened till 2100 and eventually outplayed growth-enhancing CO2 fertilization turning productivity gains into losses for beech and fir. Most scenarios generated notable losses in profitability but economic tipping points were later than for productivity due to lag effects related to discounting. Time mixture of fir and shortening rotation can counteract economic risks under climate change, but requires early admixture and moderate establishment costs.

Keywords
Climate change adaptation; eCO2; Drought; Mixed forests; Land expectation value; Uncertainty

Publication
Sperlich, D., Hanewinkel, M. & Yousefpour, R. Aiming at a moving target: economic evaluation of adaptation strategies under the uncertainty of climate change and CO2 fertilization of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). Annals of Forest Science 81, 4 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13595-023-01215-6

Data and/or Code availability
The data for the parametrization and calibration of the forest growth simulator are published in (Sperlich et al. 2020). Tables summarizing the economic results are available in the appendix.

Handling Editor
Shuguang (Leo) Liu

Topical Collection
This article is part of the Topical Collection “Socio-ecological conflicts in forest management: risks of (not) adapting?”